IMF PortWatch · AIS Tracking · Live Intelligence
Strait of Hormuz
Maritime Traffic Dashboard
Phase-by-phase temporal analysis of shipping disruptions through the world's most critical oil chokepoint — from pre-war normalcy through conflict onset, ceasefire window, and the July 2026 re-escalation.
Temporal Phase:
Phase I — Pre-War Normal
Phase II — Conflict Onset
Phase III — Ceasefire Window
Phase IV — Re-Escalation
Key Maritime Metrics — 2026 Snapshot
Jan–Jul 2026⚓
Peak Daily Transits (Pre-War)
0
Ships / Day — Jan 2026 avg.
↑ Normal operations
🚨
Minimum Daily Transits (Conflict)
0
Ships / Day — Mar–May trough
▼ −97% vs. pre-war
🕊
Ceasefire Recovery Peak
0
Ships / Day — Late Jun 2026
↑ +1,750% from conflict trough
⚡
Current Daily Transits (Jul 23)
0
Ships / Day — Re-escalation phase
▼ −85% from ceasefire peak
🛢
Trade Volume Lost (Mar–May)
~20M
Metric tons / month (est.)
▼ 95% of normal flow halted
🌍
Global Oil via Hormuz (pre-war)
21%
Share of world's seaborne crude
⚠ Now severely disrupted
📅
Days Below 50% Normal Traffic
0
Days since Feb 28 conflict onset
▼ Persistent disruption
🔒
"Dark" Vessels Estimated
0
% of ships with AIS off (Jul)
↑ Data reliability issue
Daily Tactical Intelligence & Executive Briefing
Updated Daily
🔴 LEVEL 5: CRITICAL BLOCKADE
July 21, 2026
Single-Digit Transit Collapse Amid Heavy Electronic Jamming & Active Blockade
Archive:
Traffic Flow Analysis
Daily & Phase BreakdownDaily Ship Transits — Strait of Hormuz
AIS-tracked vessels · Jan–Jul 2026 · Phase-annotated
Phase-Average Transits
Mean daily ships per phase
Current Disruption Severity Index
90/100
🔴 HIGH RISK
Trade Volume Estimate
Metric tons · monthly aggregated
Vessel Type Split
Current active transits (Jul 2026)
7-Day Rolling Average
Smoothed transit trend — Jun/Jul
Phase-by-Phase Comparative Analysis
4 Phases · 7 Metrics| Phase | Period | Duration | Avg. Ships/Day | Trade Volume | Tanker Share | Disruption Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● Phase I | Jan 1 – Feb 27, 2026 | 58 days | ~135 ships | ~22.5M MT/mo | ~42% |
5 / 100
|
| ● Phase II | Feb 28 – Jun 16, 2026 | 108 days | ~8 ships | ~1.2M MT/mo | ~15% (Iran-linked) |
97 / 100
|
| ● Phase III | Jun 17 – Jul 7, 2026 | 21 days | ~58 ships | ~9.8M MT/mo | ~38% |
43 / 100
|
| ● Phase IV | Jul 8 – Present | ~9 days | ~22 ships | ~3.5M MT/mo (est.) | ~20% |
78 / 100
|
Critical Maritime Events Timeline
Feb–Jul 2026Event Log · Phase Milestones
Jan 1 – Feb 27, 2026
Phase I — Pre-War Normal Operations
Hormuz operating at near-record capacity. ~130–140 vessels/day transiting. Full commercial shipping, LNG tankers, and oil supertankers all operating normally. Iran conducting routine naval exercises.
↑ 135 avg ships/day · 21% world oil supply
Feb 28, 2026
⚔ US-Iran Conflict Outbreak
US military strikes Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran declares Hormuz “closed” to vessels not under Iranian authorization. Commercial shipping companies issue emergency rerouting orders within 48 hours.
▼ Transits collapse from ~140 to <20 within days
Mar 1 – Apr 15, 2026
🔴 Acute Closure Phase
Daily transits drop to 2–8 ships — exclusively Iran-affiliated or “gray fleet” tankers. Iran mines southern channel. US Navy establishes armed convoy escorts but few commercial vessels accept the risk. AIS dark vessels surge to ~35%.
▼ 97% reduction in commercial traffic
Apr 16 – Jun 16, 2026
🛑 Sustained Disruption
Sporadic tanker strikes in southern channel (Omani coast route). World oil prices hit $140/barrel. Saudi Arabia attempts alternative Red Sea routing. Multiple missile strikes on anchored vessels at Fujairah anchorage.
▼ 8–15 ships/day · Oil market crisis
Jun 17, 2026
🕊 US-Iran MoU Ceasefire Signed
14-point Memorandum of Understanding signed. Iran agrees to suspend Hormuz closure enforcement pending 60-day negotiations. Commercial shipping lanes re-designated. Major shipping companies cautiously resume transit operations.
↑ Transits jump from ~12 to 35+ within 72 hours
Event Log · Continued
Jun 17 – Jul 7, 2026
🟢 Ceasefire Recovery Window
Rapid maritime recovery. Daily transits reach 50–74 ships/day by late June. Oil prices fall from $140 to $105/barrel. LNG tankers resume transit. IMF PortWatch records highest post-war transit count of 74 ships on June 24th.
↑ 74 ships/day peak · +1,750% from conflict trough
Jul 7, 2026
🔥 Ceasefire Collapse — Re-Escalation
Iran resumes attacks on commercial vessels following MoU negotiation breakdown. US immediately resumes airstrikes. Naval blockade of Iranian ports reinstated. Shipping companies issue new emergency halt orders within hours.
▼ Transits fall from 74 back to ~14 within days
Jul 7 – Jul 13, 2026
🚨 Near-Standstill Re-Closure
Multiple tanker missile strikes in Omani coastal waters. Iran announces Hormuz closed again to “hostile” nations' vessels. Fujairah anchorage overloaded with waiting tankers. JMIC records 14–16 ships/day on Jul 13.
▼ 14 ships/day minimum · JMIC confirmed
Jul 14 – Jul 16, 2026
🟠 Partial Rebound
Temporary fluctuation to ~28–32 ships/day. WTO Trade Tracker shows volume index at ~30% of normal baseline. Primarily gray fleet and local transits; all standard commercial tankers remain diverted.
⚡ ~30 ships/day · Unstable · Volume depressed
Jul 17 – Jul 23, 2026 — CURRENT
📡 Live Status: Severe Blockade & Near-Total Paralysis
WTO Trade Tracker and AIS monitoring report transits hit critical lows of 11 ships/day on July 23. Standard commercial shipping has effectively ceased in international lanes, diverting to the Cape route, while the remaining traffic operates in unrecognised northern lanes under Iranian control.
▼ 90/100 Disruption Index · CRITICAL PARALYSIS status
Cargo & Economic Impact
Current vs. Pre-WarCargo Type Volume Change
Pre-War baseline (=100) vs. Current Jul 2026
Economic Impact Cascade
Downstream effects of maritime disruption
Oil Price
$118
from $72 pre-war (+64%)
LNG Spot Price
+180%
vs. Jan baseline
War Risk Premium
15×
pre-war insurance rates
Fujairah Queue
140+
vessels anchored & waiting
Cape of Good Hope
+14
extra days per voyage
Daily Trade Loss
$4.2B
est. at peak blockade
Vessel Traffic Intelligence & Interactive Mapping
Dataset: 2,828 CrossingsAnalyzed Crossings
2,828
Total records in dataset
Sanctioned Vessels
611
21.6% of total fleet
Shadow Fleet (Gray)
388
13.7% of total fleet
Unilateral Routing (Iran)
1,181
41.8% of crossings
Interactive Transit Routing Map — Strait of Hormuz
Visualizing shipping routes: Unilateral schemes (Northern), Negotiated corridors (Omani), and TSS
Corridor Routing Shares
Distribution of crossing routing types
Top 5 Flag Registries
Dominant flags in analyzed crossings
Detailed Crossing Registry
Searchable, filtered logs of all 2,828 transits
| Vessel Name | IMO | Flag | Vessel Type | Risk Status | Routing Type | Direction | Date |
|---|
Showing 0 to 0 of 0 entries
Analytical Context & Data Notes
📡 About the Data
All transit numbers are derived from IMF PortWatch (chokepoint6) — the global maritime analytics platform powered by satellite AIS tracking from the UN Global Platform. Data updated weekly (Tuesdays). During conflict periods, figures should be treated as lower-bound estimates due to AIS spoofing, GPS jamming, and vessels “going dark.”
⚠ Data Reliability Warning
During the conflict period (Feb 28 – present), an estimated 30–40% of vessels transiting Hormuz operate without AIS signals. Iranian gray fleet tankers routinely disable transponders. True transit counts during Phase II may be 20–50% higher than AIS-derived figures, though these are Iran-controlled vessels.
🌎 Why Hormuz Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical maritime chokepoint. Pre-war, it handled ~21% of global seaborne crude oil and ~17% of global LNG. 20 million barrels per day transited this 33km-wide strait. No viable alternative route can absorb more than 40% of this volume — making any sustained closure a global economic shock.
🔮 Current Outlook (Jul 16)
Situation assessed as highly volatile. US has threatened infrastructure strikes if the strait remains closed. Iran is demanding transit fees from commercial vessels. Analysts at Kpler and Clarksons assess a <20% probability of sustained recovery to ceasefire-era traffic levels within 30 days without a new diplomatic agreement.